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The $2M launch that created only $600K · Synthetic data

$2M in product sales. $1.1M in incremental revenue.

Product C reported $2M in first-year sales. Portfolio analysis found that $900K came from Products A and B, leaving $1.1M in net incremental portfolio revenue.

Reported Product C sales
$2M
Internal portfolio switching
$900K
Net incremental portfolio revenue
$1.1M
What made it incremental
$600K new-company$500K existing-account expansion
Revenue decomposition

Product sales are not the same as portfolio growth.

Reported Product C sales$2M

Of $2M in Product C sales, $900K (45%) moved from Products A and B. The remaining $1.1M (55%) was net incremental portfolio revenue: $600K from new-company customers and $500K from existing-account expansion.

Internal switching$900K45% of Product C sales
Net incremental portfolio revenue$1.1M55% of Product C sales
New-company customers$600K
Existing-account expansion$500K
$2M Product C sales equals $900K internal switching plus $1.1M net incremental portfolio revenue. The incremental revenue comprises $600K from new-company customers and $500K from existing-account expansion.

Internal switching

Product C sales matched by reduced spend in Products A and B. It is new to Product C, but not incremental to the portfolio.

Net incremental portfolio revenue

The increase in total company-portfolio revenue: new-company revenue plus increased total spending by existing accounts.

Product migration matrix

Trace every dollar to its source.

The matrix distinguishes money that increased the company portfolio from money that only changed products.

Products A and B supplied $900K of Product C sales: $550K from Product A and $350K from Product B. The other $1.1M was incremental.

Sources of the $2M in Product C sales and their portfolio classification
Prior sourceTo Product CPortfolio classification
New to company$600KNew-company revenue
Product A$550KInternal switching
Product B$350KInternal switching
Existing portfolio expansion$500KExisting-account expansion
Total Product C sales$2M100% reconciled

Interpretation boundary: Observed migration is descriptive. Timing and account-level movement can indicate substitution patterns, but do not, by themselves, prove that the launch causally cannibalized Products A or B.

Three account journeys

“New to product” can mean three different things.

01
Account 104

Genuinely new customer

Before launch$0No portfolio spend
After launch$120KProduct C: $120K

All $120K is new-to-company revenue and incremental portfolio growth.

02
Account 237

Existing customer expands

Before launch$100KProduct A: $100K
After launch$175KProduct A: $100KProduct C: $75K

Total spend rises by $75K, so the Product C revenue is existing-account expansion.

03
Account 418

Existing customer switches

Before launch$140KProduct B: $140K
After launch$140KProduct B: $40KProduct C: $100K

Total spend is unchanged. The $100K is new to Product C, but not incremental to the portfolio.

Methodology

Account-level reconciliation, not product-level attribution.

  1. Establish the baseline.Construct account-by-product spend before the launch.
  2. Measure the destination.Identify first-year Product C revenue at the same account grain.
  3. Reconcile the portfolio.Compare each account’s total spend and product mix across periods.
  4. Classify movement.Separate new-company revenue, expansion, and internal switching using consistent rules.

This simplified example uses synthetic data for illustration. A live audit would also test timing, cohort definitions, seasonality, acquisitions, currency effects, data gaps, and alternative baseline windows.

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